Expected Return

The probability-weighted average of possible returns.

What is Expected Return?

Multiply each possible outcome by its probability and add them up. A forward-looking estimate, not a promise - actual returns will almost always differ.

Expected Return: a worked example

30% chance of +20%, 50% of +8%, 20% of -10%: 6% + 4% - 2% = 8% expected return.

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